Reflections: The decline of heavy grades
The decline of traditional Group I production is tightening the availability of heavy grades, even as demand for their unique properties remains. Group II, naphthenics and synthetic base oils will play a growing role in meeting heavy-duty requirements. Three industry experts share their thoughts on the evolving and increasingly complex landscape.
ANNA ERIKSSON
Company: Nynas AB
Title: Marketing Manager Naphthenics
Background: M.Sc. in Chemical Engineering from KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm. Held various positions in Nynas since 2006, covering product development, quality, customer support, research, application-specific education and marketing.
“The base oil puzzle is becoming more complex”
"The decline of heavy Group I grades is part of a broader structural transformation of the base oil market. Refinery rationalisation, electrification and changing performance requirements are reshaping both what is produced and what formulators have available to them.
This creates a growing need for alternative base stocks, including naphthenic specialty oils. At the heavier end, naphthenics can help address applications where viscosity, load-bearing capability and solvency remain important. At the same time, as Group II, Group III and synthetic base stocks become more prevalent, highly refined naphthenics can play a different role – supporting properties such as additive solubility and compatibility in increasingly advanced formulations.
Recent global disruptions have changed how the industry views supply. Long and complex supply chains create vulnerabilities, making reliable and resilient supply – preferably from regional production – an increasingly important consideration.
Sustainability is also becoming a broader equation. Carbon footprint matters, but so do performance, efficiency and product lifetime in the final application. Consequently, the base oil puzzle is becoming more complex, with different base stocks increasingly needed to provide complementary properties. For Nynas, our broad range of naphthenic specialty oils, combined with our European production base, puts us in a good position to contribute to this evolving landscape.”
MICHAEL CONNOLLY
Company: ICIS
Title: Head of Refining and Base Oils Analytics
Background: More than 25 years' experience as a consultant and engineer in the global energy sector.
“Group II and Naphthenics are likely to play a bigger role”
"According to ICIS data, Group I accounted for just under half of global base oil demand in 2015, falling to around one third in 2025 and to just over a quarter by 2035. The direction of travel is clear. As Group II continues to displace lighter Group I grades, pressure will keep building on the economics of older Group I plants.
Yet the real consequence is not simply the loss of light neutrals. It is the gradual tightening of heavy neutrals and bright stock, which remain far harder to replace in gear oils, marine lubricants, greases and some process oils.
That is the paradox the market will increasingly need to confront: a base oil system that can look well supplied overall, while becoming more constrained where it matters most for heavier-duty applications.
Since the post-COVID wave of Group I rationalisation, heavy grades have already begun to command firmer premiums, and that shift looks more structural than cyclical. As blenders adapt, extra-heavy Group II and high-viscosity naphthenics are likely to play a bigger role, particularly where viscosity alone is not enough and solvency still matters.
The message for producers, blenders and buyers is straightforward: future-proofing heavy-grade supply now will be far easier than reacting once the market tightens further.”
MAX JOPEN
Company: Carl Bechem
Title: Chief Technology Officer
Background: Chemist with a PhD from TU Dortmund University and extensive experience in lubricant research and development.
“Production is shifting towards hydrocracking and hydrotreating”
"The transport and logistics sector is responsible for a little less than 60 % of the entire base oil demand. As requirements of the largest consumer group change, the importance of the traditional Group I heavy grades is declining. Production is therefore increasingly shifting towards hydrocracking and hydrotreating processing, and it is more economical to produce other base oils, such as Group II or Group III.
However, the unique properties of heavy grades, such as their load-bearing capacity, make them vital for a range of sectors like the lubricants or bitumen industry. Specifically, Group I oils also exhibit increased additive solubility, which is a highly desirable trait in modern high-performance lubricant systems. This leads to an overall demand of about 4 % created by those industries almost guaranteed due to the properties of heavy grades.
In a nutshell, the decline and availability of traditional heavy grades is mainly determined by the largest consumer group and is associated with the mobility transition. This is leading to a shift towards Group I alternatives, such as synthetic heavy grades.
In the long term, as internal combustion engines decline, Group I oils could also reemerge due to their chemical properties, if they are to become more economical to produce and modern manufacturing capabilities become available.”
